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Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

My first 19 days of trading!

First, I want to thank all the individuals that help me on this sub-reddit. I've come across many other trading groups but this has been the most memorable. I've been trading for about 2-3 months now but, it was strictly penny-stocks the USA Market. I learned a lot there but I seemed to fail every time. I didn't know anything about Forex until a mechanic introduced me to babypips. From there I began to learn the trade. For about 2-3 weeks straight I studied what the website could give me. But, I knew i couldn't learn everything from there. My father still tells me "Birds of common feather, flock together." so i went out to find a group of forex traders. About half way in I thought to myself, all the forex traders probably live in super foreign countries on high level platforms that i would never gain access to unless I was born in the "Circle". But then one day while i was looking at $SNAP memes and /wallstreetbets I thought to myself, "Why not look in Reddit?". And sure enough I found this group. I read though a bunch of the hot post and knew that this was the place. So I asked questions, learned things and tried to fit in. So in comes the trading. I've been using TD Ameritrade since I started so that's the platform I've been using. Since I graduated high-school last year and only had one job, I knew that I would have to start with the minimum amount. So I opened up a Demo account and put $2,000 in. I have to say the first few days were more of luck than skill. I went in with a penny-stock mind set. My first few trades were max 1,000 units. So when I did good I got pennies but when I did bad vice-versa(Not Vice-Versa but you know what I mean). Then I learned about margins and, ooh boy let me tell you. All my trades increased to standard lots(100,000u). And i was losing left and right. And then one would be super good. The good one was, a little bit of my knowledge and lot of a fundamental event happening and me not knowing about it. So I road it and got to about $200 Dollars of it. I forgot how much I put into it but, I was hooked. I was running around my room wondering why didn't i try this before! Then the next day came and I lost $500 dollars. I was about to call it quits when, I went thought the subreddit again and saw that the real thing that makes a trader the will power and stubbornness not to give up and to recover from failures. So I buckled up and said lets do this. Everyday I drove to work I'd listen to a Forex podcast. When I got home instead of playing World of Warcraft or spending money on steam for games, I'd sit and look at the charts and learn how to use indicators and how they work. Then I jumped back into the market and began trading. I was still using crazy units but every now and then I'd make a breakthrough. One day I'd make $200-$300 dollars and in the same day lose 90-100% of it. It wasn't until SanDiegoMAGApede (Prob tired of me linking them) commented on one of my post that I began to learn risk management. Then the game was on. My trades were becoming more efficient and my days became more green. I was scalping for the majority of it until I started to see trends in the market. It was about two days ago, I was trading for ten hours straight 7-4pm(Currently getting ready for college so the weekdays are all free to me for a little bit) that i made my first real break though. I saw a trend coming and acted on it. And to my surprise it worked! I got a nice 30-40 pips. Then I longed and got a 10-20 pip gain. Then shorted for a another 30-40 pip gain. (USD/CAD). I was shocked! The next day I tried to do it again and... well lets say I wasn't a happy trader.. Then today came. I've asked questions about Fundamentals here because, one time an event caught me off guard and I lost a lot. So today came and I said to myself "lets trade on this news." I jumped on Forex Factory, set about a dollars worth of Yen on notifications to my phone and waited. It was the longest 5 minutes in my life my heart was racing super fast and then it came.. and I was right!. I road the EUUSD train all the way to the top and sold. Then I shorted and rode about half way before I went to work and closed. I was almost at $2,900 in my account I was trading on my phone on the way to work (as a passenger) which wasn't a good idea because I lost about $100+. I'm a server in a sports bar so work looked like a weekend in the markets. I then decided to go into a party room and start to trade again. I was so close to reaching my goal ($3,000 BP). So for a few hours I traded EUUSD and I then a table came and I left for about 4-5 hours. Got my $17 from work bought a salad and jumped on EUUSD. I was at $2,958 I was eyes on the market. I saw a fighting box(IDK what to call it) and started scalping the living hell out of it. Eventually I made it to $3,001.15. I started to run around the restaurant and jump around. My manger was worried and told me I was scaring him so I calmed down, jump on the phone with my father and was we were both stoked. Here's the link to day one to today: http://imgur.com/j06ycgB . But that's all I want to say. Thanks again guys and thanks for reading!
Edit: Added some much needed commas and fixed a few words. I'm still at work.
submitted by KeeperOne to Forex [link] [comments]

BlockChain Enable a Quadrillion-Dollar Derivatives Market?

BlockChain Enable a Quadrillion-Dollar Derivatives Market?
https://preview.redd.it/iwewapkg8mz11.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b52f51960172844af71917aec191dcfd6031bf9
CAN BLOCKCHAIN ENABLE A QUADRILLION-DOLLAR DERIVATIVES MARKET? IT’S A REAL POSSIBILITY. By 2028, the world economy has exploded with exponential economic growth. BlockChain is now the heart of commerce and trade. Investopedia’s valuation on the Derivatives Market now stands true at $1.2 quadrillion. And you are now very rich with your array of futures, derivatives and cryptocurrencies on hand. Isn’t this a nice possibility?
Now, imagine travelling back to 2018.
You are scrolling your news feed. The headlines show in 2017 alone, BlockChain startups have raised $1.2 billion worth initial coin offering (ICOs). ICOs enable startups, to raise money from the general public by allowing them to buy a stake in their business; which comes in a form of a token or digital currency. It looks like the public are beginning to understand the potential of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
A Facebook notification pops up on your mobile phone. Your friend has posted an article on your Facebook wall. The article is about Ethereum, the hot new BlockChain technology that is creating even bigger ripples in the finance world than its predecessor BitCoin. It seems that Ethereum is now the birthplace of many decentralized platforms, which raise funds via ICOs. As more funds are raised, these platforms get better and this drives up the value of Ethereum. The top platforms are Golem, Augur, Basic Attention Tokens and Gnosis, which collectively ring in $1.27 billion in market value. The amount of money that has been invested into Ethereum based BlockChain technology shows that people see Blockchain as the future of commerce and finance.
This all sounds good and you’re ready to participate in a hot ICO. But as a possible new investor in an ICO based on the Ethereum blockchain, how do you get started? Which platform and ICO should you consider investing in?
  1. YOU WILL NEED TO GET A WALLET. Wallets are like digital bank accounts, they hold your tokens and other cryptocurrencies you plan to buy and hold. Most ICOs are built on Ethereum smart contracts and your Wallet has to support receiving tokens. In an ICO, you send currency (typically ETH or BTC) to the company issuing a new token and receive the amount of tokens based on the given exchange rate by the company. MyEtherWallet is one of the most popular Ethereum Wallets because it is linked to the BlockChain, has excellent security features, and best of all it gives you full control of your Wallet (unlike other online wallets that are controlled by third party companies). You can get MyEtherWallet here.
  2. RESEARCH EXTENSIVELY ON AVAILABLE ICOS As with any form of investment, you need to do your research and due diligence. Unlike the research on conventional investments that look at statistics, company performance, average daily volume and annual yield, ICOs require a different kind of analysis. Often times, millions of dollars are raised in ICOs with no product or company track record. Most traditional investors would not invest as the risk outweigh the gains from the investment. It feels like a gamble.
How then would you know if an ICO is worth investing into?
First of all, you would need to study its platform concept, market potential and sustainability for long-term growth.
Is it easy for users to adopt and understand?
Do the Founders and Developers of the platform have sound knowledge of economics, inflation, block size, fees, administration, security and human behavior?
Does the crypto-economic system have what it takes to be sustainable?
Who is the team behind the platform? Are they knowledgeable and experienced?
Is this a revolutionary or game-changing product that has massive market potential?
Take Level01 as an example. It is the World’s First Brokerless Derivatives Exchange in Partnership with Thomson Reuters. The concept is innovative, more importantly; it has an enticing proposition because it addresses gaps, issues and problems faced by traditional trading markets. This facilitates a stable, robust and potentially profitable investment eco-system. How so?
Remember Investopedia’s valuation of the derivatives market at a thrilling $1.2 quadrillion? This estimate is debatable because it needed to consider, “notional value”, versus actual market value. The lack of certainty on pricing and not having accurate market data can be frustrating. Brokers also charge a fee for both ends; buying and selling, which makes it expensive to participate in trade. In addition, not everyone relishes in the prospect of understanding financial data, terms and conditions. These factors are barriers to entry that reduces the pool of investors in the derivatives market.
The Founders of Level01 saw all these and sought to develop solutions that can make investing easy, transparent, secure and fair, by using the Blockchain and partnership with financial market leader, Thomson Reuters.
AN APP THAT MAKES ANYONE A BETTER INVESTOR Whether you are a first time investor or an experienced investor, the Level01 App will help you make better investment decisions, save time and get better at investing in the Derivatives Market. Its sleek interface, smart data feed and intuitive features are designed to fit all investor types to make the trading experience as easy as 1, 2, 3.
CHANGING THE GAME WITH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE When you log on, the Level01 platform, you will have FairSenseTM Artificial Intelligence on hand to analyze trade intent patterns of all users on the platform to find the best matches for you. Once a match is found, it employs its proprietary dynamic fair price-balancing algorithm to show fair pricing for both sides of the trade contract. This saves investors time, speeds up trade, and keeps inflation in check with fair pricing.
CREDIBLE AND RELIABLE DATA FEED FROM THOMSON REUTERS Level01 raised the bar further by collaborating with Thomson Reuters. They integrated and enabled live streaming real-time market prices for Forex, Index, Cryptocurrency, Commodities and Stocks directly from Thomson Reuters, a global leader for information and data sources for professional markets. Having a 150-year-old brand name like Thomson Reuters lends tremendous credibility to the data and keeps investors informed of actual value prior to the commencement of the trade.
AUTOMATED SMART CONTRACTS As if that was not enough, the Level01 is designed as an exchange and trading platform with a system of smart contracts that resolves trust, emotion and irresponsibility in an efficient, transparent, automated manner. These automated digital contracts saves time and money for investors so that they can concentrate on analyzing data and deciding on investments.
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH DRIVEN BY USERS You may be thinking by now, that is all well and good, but what are they doing to make this unique Derivatives Exchange sustainable and primed for growth? The designers of Level01 looked towards attracting quality investors by incorporating a fair rating system based on statistics and empowering them with the ability to add value to the network, and derive value for themselves. Level01 rewards users when they participate in the ecosystem. To make it even more enticing, the Level01 platform enables Trade Room Hosting, which allows users to earn commission. These lucrative set points are attractive to users who will jump on board and increase the liquidity base, which of course, benefits everyone.
BETTER FINANCIAL LIQUIDITY Sometimes being able to sell is as important as being able to buy. This means your assets and investments can be easily converted to cash. Level01 gives you full control over your own funds by allowing your deposits and withdrawals to be done instantly. You can also change the native platform LVX tokens between BitCoin and Ethereum for better financial liquidity.
WIDER FINANCIAL PORTFOLIO Level01 allows you to trade both traditional and cryptocurrency market assets to give you greater ease and freedom to plan a diverse portfolio to suit your needs whether you like to play it safe or take profitable risks.
DIVERSE AND EXPERIENCED TEAM An international team with accolades, achievements and awards helms Level01 Derivatives Exchange. There is a mathematician and data analyst, a software engineer and system architect, a highly ranked digital marketing specialist, an expert in corporate operations, a consultant in banking and finance, a key quantitative analyst consultant who over saw $25B AUM, a corporate strategist and brand planning expert and an inventor-CEO with a string of successes under his belt, including founding a successful public listed company in Australia.
GROWING INTEREST Level01 just begun but it is already making waves in the cryptocurrency and investment world. Forums and chat groups are buzzing with conversations as seasoned cryptocurrency investors hop on the bandwagon, eager to sweep up ICOs before the rest of the world notices. Coin Telegraph, which is the top news portal on cryptocurrency, described Level01 partnership with Thomson Reuters as a great game-changer that will allow general public to trade derivatives like a pro using big data previously only available to institutional traders.
Could this be your ticket to making your 2028 the best year ever? As if you invested in Google back in 2004. You can check out more about this upcoming platform here.
submitted by Level01Exchange to u/Level01Exchange [link] [comments]

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How to Start Trading Forex - YouTube

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